Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.
Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.
This is how the hypothetical vote should look.
Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!
Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.
Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.
After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.
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